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Animal Pharm Reports
Avian Flu: The role of animal health companies in its control and eradication
Published January 2006

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CHAPTER 1 - BACKGROUND TO AVIAN FLU

1.1 Key characteristics

Avian flu (or avian influenza, AI) is a viral infection. It is also known as fowl plague, and is caused by type A influenza viruses of the Orthomyxoviridae family. It was first recorded in Italy around 1878 and pathogenic AI was first recognised in the US in 1924-25. It re-occurred in 1929, but was eradicated both times.

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There are numerous strains of avian flu, and at least 144 have been identified. Many occur at low levels in wild birds, in particular in waterfowl. Most of these strains are benign. However, some are highly pathogenic, causing high mortality rates. AI is one of only 14 diseases accorded List A status – ‘capable of rapid spread with serious socio-economic consequences’ – by the OIE. It can cause major financial losses to intensive poultry producers. Although vaccines are available, flocks remain vulnerable to the emergence of new, virulent viral strains. These also present a challenge to vaccine manufacturers. It can only infect humans with difficulty (see below), but if it mutates and crosses the species barrier, it could cause a major pandemic, with significant financial and health consequences (see Chapter 1.5.2).

Present on a worldwide basis, AI can cause a range of clinical conditions in affected flocks, ranging from modest reductions in productivity to near-total mortality.

Respiratory signs are most common, and infection may be confused initially with bacterial respiratory infections. It can also induce immunosuppression, leaving birds susceptible to secondary infections. Sub-clinical viral infections are often implicated in subsequent outbreaks of bacterial disease.

AI is not related to Newcastle disease, an important viral infection that can also cause significant financial losses in commercial poultry flocks.

Classification and pathogenicity

Influenza A viruses are divided into categories, strains or subtypes based on two genes that they carry on their surface. These are termed haemaggluttinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). Scientists have found 15 types of haemaggluttinins and nine neuraminidases. Since these can be combined in any way such that there is one H gene and one N gene, this gives a theoretical total of 135 different combinations, all of which can be termed AI. But some Hs and Ns have never been found together, leading experts to hypothesize some combinations cannot be formed. The H5 and H7 strains are most frequently associated with high pathogenicity. Neuraminidase is less important in determining pathogenicity.

Birds have been shown to be infected by the full range of haemaggluttinins, ie from H1 to H15. humans are infected by far fewer (H1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 9) Pigs are infected by only two (H1 and H3) and horses also by two (H3 and H7). There is no clear rationale behind the wide range of haemaggluttinin strains that infect birds. It is also of course possible that other H strains infect other species but have yet to be identified.

AI viruses have varying pathogenicity (ie the extent to which each subtype causes disease in infected hosts, often shortened to “path”). Viruses are classified according to whether they are highly pathogenic (HP), or low pathogenic (LP). The latter cause mild disease or none at all. The former have high mortality rates. 

Pathogenicity is also influenced by the cleavage sequence. Thus, in the outbreak in Canada in 2004, the original strain was identified as H7N3 with a cleavage sequence of PENPKTR*GLF. This was of low pathogenicity (IVPI = 0). Infection of a second flock a few days later was by a mutated strain which was still H7N3, but the cleavage site differed by possessing a 21 nucleotide/7 amino acid insert. It had an IVPI of 2.96 and was thus much more pathogenic.

The IVPI (intravenous pathogenicity index) indicates the degree of pathogenicity. It refers to a test in which the virus is inoculated into susceptible chickens that are then kept under observation. The higher the proportion of chickens that dies, the higher the IVPI. HP strains are defined as having an IVPI in 6-week old chickens of greater than 1.2; or cause at least 75% mortality in 4- to 8-week old chickens infected intravenously (OIE, 2005).

Between 1959 and 2001, a total of 18 primary outbreaks of HP AI in poultry were recorded (10 of H7 and eight of H5). Five were in the UK, five in Australia, three in other (ie non UK) European countries, and one each in Pakistan, Hong Kong, Canada, US and Mexico (see Table 1.2) the first infection in South America was in 2002 in Chile.

Some recent AI strains are detailed in Table 1.2. Low pathogenic strains leave infected chickens without symptoms, and only H5 and H7 are pathogenic enough to wipe out poultry stocks. However, even some H5 and H7 strains are low path – a low level outbreak of H5N2 in Mexico has been around for more than a decade without causing huge economic damage. There is also evidence that pathogenicity can alter over time in a single strain. Thus, an H5N2 virus in the US in 1983-84 initially caused low mortality, but within six months became highly pathogenic, with mortality approaching 90%. Control of the outbreak required destruction of more than 17 million birds at a cost of nearly $65 million.

The H5N1 strain of the virus that is responsible for the current outbreak first appeared in geese in 1996 in Guangdong Province in China (hence its original designation as Geese/GD/96). It adapted over a relatively short time period to the domestic duck population. The virus then spread to the domestic duck population in China, but caused little or no disease symptoms. By 2004, it was estimated that infected waterfowl were excreting the virus for up to 17 days following infection, causing a huge contamination of the environment. By 1997 it was found in domestic ducks. The first major outbreak was in Hong Kong in the same year when it infected poultry and humans, causing six deaths. The virus then mutated to form a genetically heterogeneous population of H5N1 strains that infected poultry, domestic and wild waterfowl. The majority of the viruses detected and characterised were of the “Z” genotype, which is now dominant in the region.

AI can infect most, if not all, birds. The following commercial species are at risk: chickens, turkeys, ducks, geese, guinea fowl, partridges, quail, pheasants, cassowaries, ostriches, emus, rheas and kiwis. Mortality rates are particularly high in turkeys. Ducks tend to show lower morbidity and mortality than chickens, but they become major virus shedders. This is a key issue in countries with large commercial/backyard duck populations, since the ducks as a reservoir for the AI virus, allowing re-infection. Moreover, the efficacy of vaccines in ducks has not been clearly established.

The incubation period for AI is 3-5 days. The virus replicates mainly in the respiratory tissues of chickens and turkeys, but in wild birds (in particular waterfowl) more commonly in the intestinal tract.

The signs of infection are normally presented suddenly. They can include oedema of the head, cyanosis of the comb and wattles, dullness, lack of appetite, respiratory distress, diarrhoea and drop in egg production. Birds will often die without any signs of disease being present. There can be considerable variation in the clinical picture and the severity of the symptoms.

Post mortem findings of infected birds can vary considerably. Congestion and haemorrhages affecting any organs are common. Necrotic foci many be found in the liver, lungs, spleen and kidneys. There may also be exudates in the air sacs and peritoneum and occasionally a fibrinous pericarditis. When the disease affects adult laying birds, an egg peritonitis is common.

Transmission in commercial flocks is through faecal and other secretions; and by contaminated feed, water, equipment and clothing. It is promoted by the population density of intensively-reared birds and the consequent close contact between birds. Chicks in incubators can become infected from broken contaminated eggs. In Southeast Asia, it has probably been spread largely by the movement of domestic poultry, eg to and from open markets. It is assumed that the long-distance spread of the virus is by wild birds (eg when migrating) and the level of contact between wild birds and commercial flocks is thus key in terms of new infections. In developed countries, free range poultry is more at risk. Where backyard farming is common (ie in much of Asia), it is easily spread from wild birds to home-reared poultry and vice versa. Infection can occur through direct contact between birds or via contaminated objects, clothes or vehicles. This has important consequences for restricting the spread of the virus between commercial flocks and regions.

Table 1.1: History of AI outbreaks in birds
Date
Flu strain
Country
Comments
C1878
Na
Italy
AI virus first recognised in Italy.
1924-1925
Na
US
Outbreak, later controlled.
1929
Na
US
Outbreak, later controlled.
1983-84
H5N2
US
Virus initially caused low mortality, but within six months became highly pathogenic, with a mortality approaching 90%. Control of the outbreak required destruction of more than 17 million birds at a cost of nearly $65 million.
1991
Na
UK
Infected a flock of 8,000 turkeys.
1995-2005
H5N2
Mexico
Lingering low path outbreak in poultry flocks for over a decade.
1997-1998
H5N2
Italy
HP AI outbreak between October 1997 and January 1998.
1997
H5N1
Hong Kong
Infected chickens and humans. The entire poultry flock was slaughtered to contain the outbreak. This was the first time an AI virus was proved to be transmitted directly from birds to humans.
1999
H9N2
Hong Kong/ China
AI strain H9N2 were confirmed in two children. Several additional human H9N2 infections were reported from mainland China in 1998-99.
1997
H7N4
Australia
Outbreak of HP AI near Tamworth, northern New South Wales. IVPI of 2.52-2.90.
1999-2001
H7N1
Italy
H7N1 virus, initially of LP, mutated within nine months to a HP form. More than 13 million birds died or were culled. Total costs were Euro 200 million.
2002-03
H7N3
Italy
45 million birds vaccinated.
2002
H7N3
Chile
Outbreak of LP AI in a broiler breeder flock. Later mutated into an HP AI.
2003-05
H5N1
SE & E Asia
Outbreaks of H5N1 confirmed among poultry in Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, South & North Korea, Thailand and Vietnam (see Table 1.3).
2003
H7N7
Netherlands
Outbreak among poultry. Infections among poultry workers and their families were confirmed. 30 million chickens killed. 89 humans infected, one person died. There were a few linked cases in Belgium and one in Germany. 
2004
H2N2
US
H2N2 AI was diagnosed in a single Pennsylvania layer complex in early February.
 
H7N2
US
Delaware & Maryland reported outbreaks of H7N2 among poultry.
 
H5N2
US
H5N2 strain was detected in Texas. A highly pathogenic strain, it is the first such case in 20 years. No evidence of human transmission.
2004
H7N3
Canada
HP H7N3 on poultry farms in British Columbia (see Case Study).
2005
H5N1
Russia
Outbreak in Novosibirsk, eastern Russia. 18,500 birds culled by August 2005. Outbreaks were also recorded in Altai (in the southeast), Omsk, Tyumen and Kurgan (west).
2005
H5N1
Kazakhstan
Geese in Pavlodar region of Kazakhstan infected. 2,400 birds culled.
2005
H5N1
Romania
Deaths of whooping swans reported in October. Outbreak of AI in November in Scarlatesti, in the eastern region. 15,000 birds culled. Migratory birds on the Danube Delta suspected as source of infection.
2005
H5N1
Turkey
Deaths of domestic turkeys reported in October.
2005
Na
Mongolia
Outbreak confirmed by OIE.
2005
H5N2
Mexico
Outbreak in northern state of Coahuila. This was the same strain as identified in Texas (which is contiguous) in 2004.
2005
H9
Colombia
In October, the H9 strain was found in chickens at three farms in Tolima state, western Columbia.
Source: Animal Pharm Reports.

Formation of new strains

New strains are formed by mutation. These can be due to either antigenic drift (small mutations) or antigenic shift (large mutations). Antigenic drift is due to the fact that viruses lack the mechanism to “proofread” and repair errors that in the DNA during replication. These changes are constant and permanent, but usually small. Antigenic shift by contrast, is caused by viruses swapping (or “reassorting”) genetic material, or merging, in the host body. This results in a novel subtype that is different from both parents. Antigenic shift can result in a subtype for which there are no vaccines and can give rise to pandemics, whether in birds or humans.

There is a growing recognition that outbreaks of LP AI are an important source of HP AI (Halvorson, 2002), and that both commercial and wild bird flocks can act as a reservoir of LP AI. Currently, outbreaks of LP AI are ignored, or not identified, especially if their clinical effects are low or zero, they occur in wild birds, or in backyard poultry flocks. This suggests a policy of improved surveillance for LP AI, in particular in commercial flocks exposed to wild birds. Some authors also suggest that it argues for vaccination against non-H5 or non-H7 strains of LP AI, with the intention of removing them from the commercial bird population, so that HP strains do not develop. H1N1 vaccines are widely used in turkey flocks in the US in states with large swine populations. In Utah in 1995, a LP AI H7 outbreak was halted six weeks after initial infection of over 200 flocks with a killed H7 vaccine and the disease subsequently eliminated (Halvorson, 2002). Certainly laboratory tests show that viral shedding of vaccinated turkeys after exposure to the field virus is reduced by 99% to 99.99% compared to those that are not vaccinated (Karunakaran, 1987).

Jumping the species barrier

It is important to distinguish between an Influenza A virus infecting a host that it would not normally infect; and the virus mutating so that it “jumps the species barrier”, such that it becomes a highly pathogenic infection that is easily spread to new members of the same species. In the former case, the virus is unlikely to infect new members of the same species. In the latter case, a new virus is formed, and a pandemic may result.

A virus is thought more likely to jump the species barrier when an organism is infected with two viruses: one that normally infects the host, and one that normally infects another species. Thus, if a human is infected with a strain of AI at the same time as a human flu virus, the two can mix and mutate (through antigenic shift) to form a new strain that is highly pathogenic to humans. However, this mechanism (and indeed, the genetics of viruses in general) is poorly understood. The key point is that the AI virus can jump the species barrier to infect a range of other animals, at which point it may become highly pathogenic.

The H5N1 AI virus has been found in pigs. This was confirmed by Chinese authorities in August 2004. Chen Hualan, Director of the China National AI Reference Laboratory stated that in 2003 and 2004 Chinese scientists started finding the H5N1 virus in pigs in different regions of China. Surveys in Indonesia have also revealed the presence of HP AI in pigs. The Ministry of Agriculture conducted three surveys in the Bandung province of West Java between February 23 and April 26 2005. A total of 187 samples were taken from asymptomatic pigs using purposive and pooled sampling. Researchers identified the H5N1 strain of the virus. 

This has sparked renewed concern that the disease could mutate into a form transmissible between humans. Although pigs do not usually transmit the virus one to another, flu experts are concerned that pigs could act as a reservoir in which a human pandemic strain could evolve through antigenic shift.

In Thailand, the H5N1 strain has been reported in domestic cats, captive tigers and leopards (Tiensin et al, 2004). Fresh chicken carcasses fed to tigers in Sriracha Zoo in Chonburi Province were thought to be responsible for the infection there, which lead to the death or culling of 147 tigers.

Table 1.2: Summary of AI outbreaks, Asia, 2003-2005
Country
Comments
Cambodia 
 
First confirmed in 2004. H5N1 has been detected in layer hens and wild birds, geese and ducks. Further outbreaks have not been large, but there may be significant under-reporting.
 
China
Confirmed in January 2004 in dead ducks on a farm in the southern province of Guangxi (but the outbreak probably started in late 2003). Massive culling followed, but the virus continued to spread in poultry-producing areas in 12 out of the country's 31 provinces. China's first case of cross-species transmission was reported in August 2004 when the H5N1 virus was been found in pigs on several farms. Outbreaks continued throughout 2004 and into 2005, with, for example, ten outbreaks in October/November 2005. A mass vaccination policy has been implemented.
 
Hong Kong
Despite its border with mainland China, and its previous bouts of AI (eg 1997), Hong Kong has escaped relatively lightly. Outbreaks have been restricted to wild birds, and surveillance and biosecurity is strictly enforced.
 
Indonesia
In Autumn 2003 there were outbreaks in Kalimantan and Java, later identified as H5N1. Over 7 million chickens and ducks died or were culled; and 300 million doses of AI vaccine distributed to farmers. There have been recurring outbreaks through 2004 and 2005 in many regions, focused on Java and southern Sumatra, but including Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Bali, West Timor and Nusa Tengarra Barat.
 
Japan
In January 2004, an outbreak killed around 6,000 chickens at a layer farm Yamaguchi prefecture, western Japan. A second case was seen in a hobby flock in Oita Prefecture, south-eastern Japan later the same month. Japan's third outbreak occurred in March 2004 at the large Asada Nosan Funai layer farm in Kyoto prefecture. All of the farm's 225,000 birds died of the disease or were culled. Outbreak of LP AI at Mitsukaido City, Ibaraki prefecture in April 2005. All 25,000 birds on the farm were culled, and 17 farms within 5 km were placed under restrictions. 170,000 chickens were culled on a farm north of Tokyo after AI H5 strain was identified in November 2005.
 
Malaysia
The first outbreak of H5N1 was in August 2004, in the northern state of Kelantan. Further outbreaks in the north followed, but the number of birds killed or culled remains in the hundreds and there have been no human deaths. Sabah has remained AI-free.
 
North Korea
Announced that it had identified its first case of AI in March 2005. Authorities started a mass cull to eradicate the virus. There have been reports of mass vaccination programmes, but information has been scarce.
 
Philippines
LP strain detected by routine testing. Flocks were culled within a 3 km radius. Exports of poultry voluntarily banned. There have been no (confirmed) outbreaks of HP AI.
 
South Korea
The first case of H5N1 was in December 2003 in a commercial farm in the central province of Chungbuk. Some 3 million chickens and 1 million ducks were culled in a 3 km radius from the affected farm. Further outbreaks of AI were reported in late 2004, but were LP H9N2 and H2N2 strains.
 
Taiwan
An outbreak of LP strain H5N2 was reported in January 2004. Widespread chicken deaths were seen on farms in early 2004. Laboratories did not detect the HP strain, but suspected complications arising from Newcastle disease, infectious bronchitis, infectious bursal disease and colibacillosis. 
 
Thailand
Initial infection was mid-November 2003 in central Thailand. Singapore and Japan banned poultry imports in January 2004. The EU later followed suit. Two children died in January 2004, which saw a second outbreak in Suphan Buri Province in central Thailand. This spread to northern areas and metropolitan Bangkok. 36 million birds had been culled by May 2005, and the government declared Thailand to be AI-free. However, further outbreaks occurred in mid-2005. The worst-affected country in terms of economic costs. 13 human deaths.
 
Viet Nam
In December 2003, 60,000 chickens died of AI in southern Viet Nam. A second outbreak killed hundreds of thousands. The government ordered a cull in all 12 regions affected; and declared Viet Nam to be disease-free in March. But there were further outbreaks throughout the year, leading to the death through infection or culling of over 44 million birds. Other outbreaks were reported in the first half of 2005. In an outbreak in central Qhang Tri province in August 2005, 23,000 birds were culled, with a further cull. 42 human deaths.
 
Source: Animal Pharm Reports


1.2 Non-avian influenza viruses

Type A influenza viruses can infect pigs, dogs and horses as well as birds and humans.

In pigs, the disease is known as swine fever and is caused by H1N1 and H3N3 strains. Swine fever is endemic worldwide and is characterised by high morbidity (ie frequency) and low mortality. It causes dyspnea, coughs and fever, but infected animals usually recover within 2-6 days. In addition to the economic costs to the pig farmer, the infections of pigs with influenza viruses means that the hosts can act as a mixing pot for antigenic shift between human, avian and swine  viruses. Inactivated vaccines against swine fever are available.

Equine influenza is found worldwide and is characterised by coughing, lethargy, nasal discharges and a temperature (ie similar symptoms to those found in humans). The horse usually recovers within two weeks. Inactivated vaccines are available to control equine influenza.

The H3N8 equine influenza virus has been found in horses for over 40 years and there have not been any documented cases of human infection. However, in January 2004 it jumped to dogs, infecting racing greyhounds in Florida and then spreading to domestic dogs along the east coast of the US. Mortality rates were 5-8%. The case was investigated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, GA who reportedc (somewhat unhelpfully) that an “unknown trigger” caused the virus to jump the species barrier.

1.3  Consequences for wild birds

The bird order most affected by the AI virus (or at least the one in which it is most commonly found) is waterfowl (Anseriformes). Stallkneck and Shane (1988) review the subject, detailing 21,318 samples, and the isolation of 2,317 viruses. More than 90% were in Anseriformes. Recent cases are listed in Table 1.3. 

There has been little research on the effects of AI on wild bird populations. They are likely to be more resilient to infection and resulting symptoms than commercial flocks because of their natural immunity. Domestic flocks are also more vulnerable because they are reared intensively, which increase the risk of infection and puts the birds’ immune systems under increased stress. However, significant mortality can occur in wild birds: the UK-based Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) states that H5N1 caused the death of 5-10% of the world's remaining bar-headed geese during a recent outbreak in China (www.rspb.org.uk, November 2005). However, such mortality rates are unlikely to have much long-term effect on the populations of common bird species.

The method of transmission amongst wild birds is not well understood. It is likely that it is spread through faeces, secretions and in water. It is significant that it is more common in wild waterfowl than other wild bird species. Wild waterfowl probably act as a reservoir of LP AI viruses, which then infect domestic commercial bird flocks, possibly after a mutation, resulting in HP AI. Conservation organisations such as the RSPB in the UK are concerned that will bird populations could be culled to reduce the risk of transmission of the virus. Experts do not consider that this would be an effective means of containing the virus due to the large numbers involved and the impracticality of preventing mass-migration of birds. The WHO, FAO and OIE, as well as the RSPB, are of the opinion that “culling of wild birds is unlikely to stop the spread. Indeed, we believe culls could make things worse, for example by dispersing infected birds” (www.rspb.org.uk).

Table 1.3: Reported cases of HP AI in wild birds, 2004/2005
Country
Species
Type AI
Date
Cambodia
Wild birds in a zoo, including grey-headed fish eagle, serpent eagles, hawk eagles, spotted wood owls, brown fish owl, spot-bellied eagle owl, buffy fish owls, psittacines.
H5N1
Feb 2004
China
Bar-headed geese, great black-headed gulls, brown-headed gulls, ruddy shelducks and great cormorants.
H5N1
Apr 2005
Croatia
AI confirmed in 12 swans found dead near a pond in the village of Zdenci, eastern Croatia.
Na
Oct 2005
EU
Three member states found 15 samples in wild birds.
H5
2004
Hong Kong
Black-headed gull, little egret, greater flamingo, grey heron, various waterfowl, pigeon, tree sparrow.
H5N1
Late Dec 2003 – Jan 2003
Hong Kong
Peregrine falcon (2), Grey heron (2), Grey heron, Chinese pond heron
H5N1
Mar 2003 - Jan 2005
Japan
Crows.
H5N1
Mar 2004
Kazakhstan
Wild birds.
H5N1
Aug 2005
Korea
Magpies.
H5N1
Mar 2004
Kuwait
Virus found in a flamingo found on a beach.
H5N1
Nov 2005
Mongolia
Bar-headed geese, whooper swan.
H5
Aug 2005
Romania
Found in a heron near the border with Moldova; and in two locations in Romania's Danube delta.
H5N1
Oct 2005
Russia (Siberia)
Wild birds.
H5N1
Aug 2005
Thailand
Pigeons, open-bill storks, little cormorant, red-collar dove, scaly breasted munia, black drongo.
H5N1
Dec 2004
Source: OIE, country reports, ProMed, GPHIN, Animal Pharm Reports

1.4 Consequences for commercial poultry

Infection with AI can cause a variety of clinical conditions in affected flocks. These range from modest reductions in productivity to acute infection and very high mortality rates. Respiratory signs are most common, and infection may be confused initially with bacterial respiratory infections. Even LP AI is capable of causing significant disease in turkeys.
At the farm and national level there are several types of costs associated with an outbreak of AI, as detailed below.

Highly pathogenic strains of the virus can wipe out commercial flocks of poultry, often in conjunction with rapid mutations causing LP strains to become HP. The cost is thus that of the dead birds, and the lost production from infected birds that recover (although most of course will still be culled). Farmers in developing countries are more at risk since their biosecurity is likely to be poorer, and their governments less able to impose surveillance, vaccination or culling policies to detect and then eradicate outbreaks. They are also less likely to have insurance or to have the resources (eg access to loans to re-stock) to recover post-infection.

Additional losses are caused by the culling of infected or firebreak flocks to prevent further spread of the virus. Although in developed countries, farmers are often compensated for the culling of non-infected birds, there is still, of course, a cost to the economy as a whole. In developing countries, farms may still be compensated, but at below-market levels (eg in China and Thailand).

The third cost is the loss of public confidence in the poultry industry, and the resultant fall in poultry consumption (see Table 1.4). It is, of course, safe to eat poultry meat from flocks that are not infected. And governments (at least in western countries) should be able to impose effective surveillance mechanisms on poultry sent to slaughter if an outbreak has occurred in their country (as evidenced by the sale of poultry meat from AI-infected areas in Canada in 2004). However, at least in Europe, public confidence in the ability of the government to guarantee safe food supplies is not high, and government assurances on the safety of any given food are often not trusted. There are good reasons for this in the UK, where vCJD caught from eating BSE-infected beef has caused more than 130 deaths, despite repeated assurances from the government in the 1980s that British beef was safe to eat. The consequence is that food scares often lead to a rapid drop in consumption of the specific food. Consumption usually recovers in the medium term (ie within a few months unless the issue continues to make headlines), but the short-term economic consequences for integrated commercial farms can be huge, with prices falling as consumption plummets.

Table 1.4: Effects of AI outbreaks on selected consumer poultry markets
Country
Comments
France
Sales of poultry fell by 15-25% in late 2005, compared to a year earlier.
 
Greece
The first EU country to confirm the presence of H5 strain of the AI virus, in late 2005. Poultry sales fell by 70-80%, although the outbreak was restricted to the island of Oinousses, and was not confirmed. Greece’s AI-free status was confirmed by late November 2005.
 
Italy
Sales fell by 70% and prices by more than 50% in late 2005, despite the AI virus not being present in the country. This may be due to prior outbreaks. The government handed out free chicken in Rome and the Italian Health Minister ate chicken for the cameras to help boost consumer confidence.
 
Korea (South)
Farm gate prices fell from $1.50 per kg to less than $0.50 per kg during the Autumn of 2005.
Turkey
White meat consumption in Turkey nosedived after the H5N1 virus was detected in the country in November 2005. Demand fell 80% and prices fell by 40%.
 
UK
The domestic retail market (which accounts for 60% of supplies) held up well in the last quarter of 2005. However, wholesale markets were hit by the import of cheap poultry from Italy after the domestic Italian market collapsed. The UK wholesale price fell to below the cost of production.
Source: Animal Pharm Reports

Export markets may also be lost if poultry does not meet international health and safety requirements; or if buyers loose confidence in the safety of the product. Thus during the outbreak of AI in Canada in 2004, poultry was deemed safe to sell through domestic retail channels, but could not be exported. Thailand has lost significant export markets during the current outbreak.

The US, the world’s largest exporter of broiler meat, has experienced problems with the loss of export markets due to AI outbreaks. Thus China and Japan both embargoed exports from the US in 2001-2002 due to an outbreak of LP AI H7N2 strain in the northeast of the US. Mexico’s AI regulations require that source flocks must be tested within 15 days of slaughter prior to being imported to the country.  Such restrictions must have a sound basis in biosecurity. However, they can also be useful to countries that are imposing them in terms of protecting the domestic poultry industry.

There are also knock-on effects downstream and, in particular, upstream of the poultry industry. Thus in Thailand (whose substantial export industry has been severely affected), hatcheries, feed mills, farm workers and traders were all affected.
There may also be secondary costs. Tourism and other travel to affected areas may be affected (this was an issue in the SARS outbreak of 2003). Countries that have significant export industries may find that they lose markets over the long term as their customers seek supplies from elsewhere.

The disruption of poultry supplies, in some cases matched by the collapse of demand for poultry meat, can also have knock-on effects on other meats as consumer demand switches to other products that are thought to be more safe, increasing prices of these meats.

The social and economic effects of losses due to AI vary according the type of poultry industry that is affected. The outbreak in Canada in 2004 resulted in the slaughtering of about 17 million commercial poultry, equivalent to 90% of the original local population, almost all of which were from commercial flocks. However, within a few weeks most farms were re-stocking. In Thailand, with its intensive export-oriented industry, companies went bankrupt, wage earners lost their jobs and export markets disappeared. In Indonesia, where many of the affected flocks were owned by backyard farmers, the costs fell on the poorer members of the community. 30 million rural households lost 200 million chickens, and many low-paid agricultural workers also lost their jobs. As often with natural and man-made disasters, the poor suffer the most. The total number of poor people living in currently affected countries that are dependent on poultry is estimated at 136-210 million (see Appendix 1).

The actual costs of AI outbreaks are a matter of some conjecture, although economists are never reticent about estimating such costs. Economic losses from the ongoing AI outbreak in the Asian poultry sector were estimated to be $10 billion by November 2005. This may be an over-estimate – estimated costs from a number of sources are detailed in Table 1.5. Thailand suffered the most in economic terms, with losses of $1.2 billion. 
Table 1.5: Economic costs of HP AI outbreaks, 1997-2005
Country
Comments
Canada
Poultry farmers in British Colombia estimated that it would cost $340 million to rebuild their industry after the H7N3 outbreak in 2004.
 
Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s entire chicken flock (some 1.3 million birds) was slaughtered in December 1997 in order to eradicate the H5N1 strain of the virus, which had been responsible for several human deaths on the island since 1996.
 
Indonesia