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New model gauges diseases' epidemic potential
Max Pruetzel-Thomas, Reporter, Central & Eastern Europe
03 June 2008

South Korean quarantine officials in protective suits prepare to bury sacks containing culled chickens and ducks at a poultry farm in Busan, about 420 km southeast of Seoul, South Korea, on 12th May, 2008. About 15,000 poultry were culled. The new mathematical model created by researchers at Los Alamos National Library could potentially prevent such action
Photo: REUTERS/OH Su-Hee/Yonhap
A new mathematical model could help health experts determine in real time whether emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza have the potential to spread globally.

The model, developed by Luís Bettencourt and Ruy Ribiero at Los Alamos National Laboratory, US, works by examining subtle changes in epidemiological data to ascertain whether a disease could cause a global pandemic.

"What we wanted to create was a mathematically rigorous way to account for changes in transmissibility," said Dr Bettencourt. "We now have a tool that will tell us in the very short term what is happening based on anomaly detection. What this method won't tell you is what's going to happen five years from now."

The researchers developed an extension of standard epidemiological models to describe the probability of a disease spreading in a given population.

The model also takes into account actual disease surveillance data gathered by bodies such as the World Health Organization, and looks for discrepancies between the expected and actual transmission rates.

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Based on this, the model provides actual transmission probabilities for the disease. Unlike some other models, it does not require large amounts of data for accuracy, and works even for very small populations.

After developing their model, the researchers looked at actual epidemiological surveillance data collected during avian influenza outbreaks in various parts of the world. The tool accurately portrayed real transmission scenarios, they said.

"We are closing the loop on science-based prediction of transmission consequences in real time," said Dr Ribeiro. "A program of this type is something that needs to be implemented at a worldwide level to provide an integrated way to respond a priori to an emerging disease threat."

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